%402x.svg){kind=icon}
The zero-click rate on Google searches has risen in every two-year window for over a decade.
There has never been a downward year. Not during any algorithm update. Not during any change in user behaviour. Not during the pandemic-era browsing surge. The line goes up.
For construction firm owners who've been investing in SEO for a decade, that chart explains a phenomenon you've probably been experiencing without naming: the same SEO effort producing fewer leads each year.
It's not your agency. It's not the algorithm being unfair. It's the structural reality that Google has been progressively keeping more of the search experience inside its own results page — and that the trajectory hasn't reversed in twelve years.
Look at the events that defined each two-year window:
2014–2016. Featured Snippets introduced. Knowledge Graph expanded. First major "answer in the SERP" features.
2016–2018. Mobile-first indexing. People Also Ask boxes rolled out. Ad inventory above organic increased from 2 to 4 on commercial queries.
2018–2020. Local Pack prominence increased. Knowledge panels for businesses expanded. Voice search standardisation across mobile.
2020–2022. Multitask Unified Model (MUM) launched, improving Google's ability to answer complex questions directly. Page Experience signals altered organic visibility.
2022–2024. Search Generative Experience (SGE) — the precursor to AI Overviews — entered beta. AI Overviews rolled out to general availability mid-2024.
2024–2026. AI Overviews expanded from 13% to 25% of all searches. AI Mode launched. Community Perspectives (May 2026) integrated Reddit and forum content into AI Overviews. ChatGPT, Perplexity, and Claude grew into significant search alternatives.
Every two-year window has added new ways for Google to answer queries without sending traffic anywhere else. The trend isn't slowing down. The Community Perspectives update in May 2026 alone is expected to add another 4–8 percentage points to the zero-click rate by end of year.
Three reasons the line keeps going up:
Economics. Every click that leaves Google's ecosystem to a third-party website is revenue Google doesn't capture. Every search question answered on the SERP is an ad impression, an interaction logged for training, and a user who didn't go to a competitor. Google's economic interest is in maximising on-SERP answers. The trend reflects that interest.
Technology. AI summarisation has fundamentally changed what's possible on a search results page. Twelve years ago, "answering the user directly" required a human-edited featured snippet pulled from a single source. Now it requires no human curation — the AI synthesises across sources in real time. The capability gap that limited zero-click in 2014 simply doesn't exist anymore.
Behaviour. Users prefer it. Surveys consistently show that searchers like getting answers on the SERP rather than clicking through to ad-laden websites with pop-ups. Google's product design follows user preference, and user preference is for less clicking, not more.
There is no commercial, technological, or behavioural reason to expect the line to reverse. The forecast for 2028 is a zero-click rate around 65–68% on traditional Google search, and the AI Mode rate exceeding 95%.
If you accept that the trend doesn't reverse, two strategic responses are available.
Response one: keep doing SEO the same way. Continue investing in keyword rankings. Watch the curve continue. Accept that the channel is shrinking and budget for shrinking returns. This is the most common response — not because it's strategic, but because it requires no decision.
Response two: re-tool. Stop measuring success by ranking position. Start measuring by AI citation presence, branded search volume, Map Pack visibility, and pipeline source. Reallocate budget from keyword-chasing to content built for citation. Build LinkedIn and brand presence to grow branded search. Treat search as one channel in a portfolio, not the channel.
The firms doing response two are quietly cleaning up in their sectors. The firms doing response one are blaming their agencies and writing off SEO as a failed experiment.
Some specific predictions worth pricing into 2026–2028 planning:
AI Mode usage will reach 15–20% of total Google searches by mid-2027. Currently around 4–6%. The 93% zero-click rate on those searches means a disproportionate share of "search visibility" will become invisible to website-tracking entirely.
Branded search traffic will increase as a share of total traffic for firms that invest in brand-building outside Google. Construction firms that maintain consistent owner-led LinkedIn presence are already seeing 30–50% of their organic search traffic come from branded queries. That share will grow.
Map Pack will remain resilient for local commercial queries. Trades that serve a specific geography (most construction, manufacturing, industrial contractors and fabricators) will continue to find Map Pack visibility valuable. Investment in Google Business Profile, reviews, and local citations will retain ROI longer than traditional organic SEO.
SEO retainer pricing will compress. Agencies that can only deliver keyword ranking improvements will see retainers shrink as clients realise the rankings produce fewer leads. Agencies that can deliver AI citation work, branded search growth, and integrated channel strategy will command premiums.
The honest assessment for most £2–30m construction firms in 2026 is this:
Your SEO spend over the last five years has produced declining returns even when "the rankings looked good". You've probably been told the algorithm changes are the cause, or that more content is needed, or that competition is increasing. The real cause is the chart above. The line goes up. Your channel shrinks. Same effort, fewer leads.
The response that works is not to spend more on the same approach. It's to recognise that "search" in 2026 is a different thing than it was in 2018, and to allocate investment accordingly.
That means: SEO budget, yes — but aimed at AI citation, not just keyword rankings. LinkedIn investment for branded search growth. Map Pack defence. Site speed and conversion work for the visitors you do get. And honest measurement that tracks pipeline, not impressions.
Quiet Giants works with one £2–30m UK construction, manufacturing, industrial, or B2B firm per sector at a time. We build the digital marketing engine for firms that already have the reputation — but whose current SEO setup is fighting last decade's battle.
If the chart in this post matches what you've been seeing in your own SEO results, book a 30-minute call. No pitch, no retainer presented in the first conversation. Just a clear-eyed look at where you actually stand and what realistically moves the numbers.
Sources: SparkToro Zero-Click Studies 2018, 2022; Similarweb 2024; Semrush AI Mode Analysis 2026; Google AI Overviews Community Perspectives announcement, 7 May 2026.
.svg){kind=small}
Stay ahead with the latest marketing insights, trends, and exclusive updates. Subscribe now and beat!
